Temu Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
109.0median
47265
Median 109.0Middle half 107.9 – 110.0
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Predictions
What traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect for the Fed, inflation, jobs and growth, the stock market, companies, crypto, commodities and currencies: the odds of each outcome and the ranges they imply, next to the instruments they are about.
The Fed's next meetings
Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike
- Dec 9Hike 78%4.07%KalshiPolymarket
- Jan 27Hold 79%4.11%KalshiPolymarket
- Mar 17Hike 47%4.22%KalshiPolymarket
- Apr 28Hold 57%4.24%KalshiPolymarket
- Jun 9Hold 61%4.30%Kalshi
- Jul 28Hold 73%4.33%Kalshi
The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each meeting, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged where both list it, and the target-range midpoint those odds imply afterwards.
Headline odds
Where the venues differ
- CPI in OctoberMedianKalshi 0.22%Polymarket 0.27%0.05 pts apart
- Unemployment in OctoberMedianKalshi 4.14%Polymarket 4.19%0.05 pts apart
- Jobs numbers in October 2026?MedianKalshi 67KPolymarket 63K3K apart
- Fed decision in Mar 2027?HoldKalshi 50%Polymarket 47%3 pts apart
The same question on Kalshi and Polymarket, settled on the same official figure or decision, priced apart. Each venue's rules decide its market: read both before comparing.
Biggest moves today
Dick's Sporting Goods Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
89.0median
71107
Median 89.0Middle half 87.9 – 90.0
Kroger Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
95.5median
85101
Median 95.5Middle half 95.3 – 95.8
Sephora Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
131.7median
92142
Median 131.7Middle half 129.8 – 133.7
Walmart Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
101.2median
92112
Median 101.2Middle half 100.6 – 101.9
Wendy's Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
84.0median
7593
Median 84.0Middle half 83.5 – 84.5
Closing this week
Bank of England rate decision in November (Nov 5, 2026 meeting)
97%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps97%▼ 3
- Maintain current rate1%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31, 2026
197,348median
165,000225,000
Median 197,348Middle half 193,061 – 201,705
Czech National Bank rate decision in November (Nov 5, 2026 meeting)
98%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps98%▼ 2
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Maintain current rate1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
Continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 24, 2026
1,712median
1,6501,770
Median 1,712Middle half 1,700 – 1,726
Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?
93%chance▲ 1
Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings?
88%chance▲ 13
Most traded
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
39%↑ 90,000
- Reaches $90,00039%
- Reaches $95,00021%
- Reaches $100,00014%
- Reaches $110,0005%
- Falls to $70,00034%
- Falls to $65,00019%
- Falls to $60,00013%
- Falls to $55,0007%
Already reached: ↓ 60,000, ↑ 85,000, ↑ 80,000, ↑ 75,000, ↑ 70,000, ↑ 65,000
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
98%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)98%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change21%
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
22%by December 31, 2027
- by December 31, 20261%
- by March 31, 20274%▲ 1
- by June 30, 202710%
- by September 30, 202716%
1 more
- by December 31, 202722%▼ 1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%chance
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
26%↓ 2,000
- Reaches $3,00024%
- Reaches $3,50010%
- Reaches $4,0004%
- Reaches $4,5002%
- Falls to $2,00026%
- Falls to $1,75013%
- Falls to $1,5009%
- Falls to $1,2505%
Already reached: ↑ 2,750, ↑ 2,500, ↑ 2,250, ↑ 2,000, ↑ 1,750, ↑ 1,750
What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
$85,438high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $85,438 and as low as $75,365.
- Reaches $82,50075%
- Reaches $85,00054%
- Reaches $87,50034%
- Reaches $90,00023%
- Falls to $77,50071%
- Falls to $75,00047%
- Falls to $72,50030%
- Falls to $70,00018%
Already reached: ↑ 80,000, ↓ 77,500, ↑ 77,500, ↓ 77,500, ↓ 80,000
Largest Company end of December 2026?
59%Apple
- Apple59%▲ 23
- NVIDIA38%▼ 23
- Microsoft2%▲ 2
- Alphabet1%
4 more
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
Bitcoin all time high by ___?
3%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 20263%
Anthropic IPO by __?
Nov 20, 2026even chance by
- November 15, 20262%▲ 1
- November 16, 20265%▼ 3
- November 17, 202610%▲ 2
- November 18, 202619%▼ 5
8 more
- November 19, 202636%▼ 6
- November 20, 202663%▲ 1
- November 23, 202665%
- November 24, 202673%▼ 6
- November 25, 202675%▼ 12
- November 30, 202683%▼ 4
- December 15, 202688%▼ 2
- December 31, 202691%▲ 1
Crude Oil all time high by...?
13%December 31
- March 31, 202713%▼ 6
- December 3113%▼ 3
What price will Bitcoin hit November 2-8?
50%↑ 82,000
- Reaches $82,00050%
- Reaches $84,00017%
- Reaches $86,0005%
- Reaches $88,0002%
- Falls to $78,00035%
- Falls to $76,00011%
- Falls to $74,0004%
- Falls to $72,0001%
Already reached: ↑ 80,000, ↓ 76,000, ↑ 78,000, ↓ 80,000
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
67%SpaceX
- SpaceX67%▲ 1
- Anthropic27%▼ 2
- xAI21%
- OpenAI<1%
9 more
- ByteDance<1%
- Stripe<1%
- Databricks<1%
- SHEIN<1%
- Waymo<1%
- Revolut<1%
- Discord<1%
- Perplexity AI<1%
- Kraken<1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
2%chance
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.09Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.09T.
- Reaches $1.5T92%
- Reaches $1.75T79%
- Reaches $2T63%
- Reaches $2.25T28%
- Falls to $800B3%
- Falls to $700B2%
- Falls to $600B1%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?
$96.89high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $96.89 and as low as $80.63.
- Reaches $9559%
- Reaches $10036%
- Reaches $10524%
- Reaches $11014%
- Falls to $8578%
- Falls to $8046%
- Falls to $7524%
- Falls to $7010%
Already reached: ↑ $100, ↓ $90, ↓ $95
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
25%$1.75–$2.0T
- $1.75–$2.0T25%▼ 6
- $1.5–$1.75T24%▲ 1
- $2.0–$2.25T17%▼ 1
- $1.25–$1.5T16%▲ 3
6 more
- <$1.25T8%▲ 1
- $2.25–$2.5T5%▲ 1
- $2.5–$2.75T2%
- $2.75–$3.0T1%
- No IPO by December 31, 20271%▼ 1
- $3.0T+1%
What price will Ethereum hit November 2-8?
43%↑ 2,500
Traders see as low as $2,340.
- Reaches $2,50043%
- Reaches $2,60011%
- Reaches $2,7004%
- Reaches $2,8002%
- Falls to $2,40087%
- Falls to $2,30026%
- Falls to $2,2009%
- Falls to $2,1002%
Already reached: ↑ 2,400, ↑ 2,300, ↑ 2,300
What price will Ethereum hit in November?
$2,631high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2,631 and as low as $2,218.
- Reaches $2,50079%
- Reaches $2,60056%
- Reaches $2,70038%
- Reaches $2,80023%
- Falls to $2,40093%
- Falls to $2,30071%
- Falls to $2,20046%
- Falls to $2,10029%
Already reached: ↑ 2,400, ↑ 2,300, ↑ 2,300, ↑ 2,300
Bitcoin above ___ on November 6?
$80,294median
$66,000$90,000
Median $80,294Middle half $78,899 – $81,518Above today's price 52%
Fed rate cut by...?
52%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting52%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting50%▲ 12
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting13%
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
50%↑ $4,500
- Reaches $4,50050%
- Reaches $5,0005%
- Reaches $6,0002%
- Reaches $7,0002%
- Falls to $3,5006%
- Falls to $3,0003%
- Falls to $2,5001%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
What price will Solana hit in 2026?
36%↓ 80
- Reaches $14013%
- Reaches $1608%
- Reaches $1804%
- Reaches $2004%
- Falls to $8036%
- Falls to $7020%
- Falls to $6010%
- Falls to $506%
Already reached: ↑ 120, ↑ 100, ↑ 80, ↑ 90, ↑ 70, ↓ 90
Recently resolved
- What price will Bitcoin hit in October?Settled Reached $85,000, fell to $77,500Polymarket · Closed Sun 12:00 AM ET
- What price will Ethereum hit in October?Settled Reached $2,700, fell to $2,200Polymarket · Closed Sun 12:00 AM ET
- Largest Company end of October 2026?Settled AppleOdds a day before: >99% · Polymarket · Closed Sat 7:06 AM ET
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?Settled Reached $105, fell to $90Polymarket · Closed Fri 11:15 PM ET
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026Settled No changeOdds a day before: >99% · Polymarket · Closed Thu 11:20 AM ET
- Fed Decision in October?Settled No changeOdds a day before: 95% · Polymarket · Closed Wed 4:05 PM ET
What each market settled on, and the odds traders gave the outcome that happened the day before it closed.
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance