ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
81%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase81%▼ 7
- No change16%▲ 4
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
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ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
Settled No changeA day before, traders gave it >99%
The last odds before it closed
>99%No change
- No change>99%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps increase<1%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 54% on Jul 25, 99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ No change | >99% | $302.7K | |||
| ✗ 50+ bps decrease | <1% | $36.0K | |||
| ✗ 25 bps decrease | <1% | $40.8K | |||
| ✗ 25 bps increase | <1% | $225.4K | |||
| ✗ 50+ bps increase | <1% | $86.2K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›ECB Interest Rates: February 2027
80%No Change
- No Change80%▲ 4
- 25 bps increase14%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%▼ 2
1 more
- 25 bps decrease3%▼ 1
ECB Interest Rates: March 2027
53%No Change
- No Change53%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase39%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase5%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)2%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▼ 11
- No change31%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%
- April 2027 Meeting50%▲ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting13%▲ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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