Fed decision in Dec 2026?
64%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps64%▼ 15
- Fed maintains rate34%▲ 16
- Cut 25bps1%▲ 1
- Cut >25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%▼ 1
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Fed Decision in October?
Settled No changeA day before, traders gave it 95%
The last odds before it closed
>99%No change
- No change>99%▲ 5
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps increase<1%▼ 4
- 50+ bps increase<1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 59% on Jun 19, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ No change | >99% | $31.9M | |||
| ✗ 50+ bps decrease | <1% | $10.7M | |||
| ✗ 25 bps decrease | <1% | $17.8M | |||
| ✗ 25 bps increase | <1% | $21.6M | |||
| ✗ 50+ bps increase | <1% | $19.8M |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed decision in Jan 2027?
74%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate74%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps22%▲ 4
- Cut 25bps3%▲ 2
- Hike >25bps1%
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
47%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate47%▼ 3
- Hike 25bps44%▼ 5
- Cut 25bps4%▼ 3
- Hike >25bps2%▼ 1
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
58%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate58%
- Hike 25bps12%▼ 13
- Cut 25bps5%▼ 6
- Cut >25bps4%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
67%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate67%▲ 10
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps1%▲ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
92%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate92%▲ 16
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps3%▼ 17
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
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