Fed Decision in December?

Polymarket Closes Dec 9 · $15.2M traded · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

66%25 bps increase
  • 25 bps increase66%▼ 12
  • No change32%▲ 10
  • 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
  • 50+ bps increase1%
  • 50+ bps decrease1%

How the odds have moved

25 bps increase: 68% on Oct 2, 66% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Traded
25 bps increase 66% ▼ 12 65¢ 66¢ $4.3M
No change 32% ▲ 10 31¢ 32¢ $3.5M
25 bps decrease 1% ▲ 1 1¢ 1¢ $2.9M
50+ bps increase 1% 1¢ 1¢ $1.9M
50+ bps decrease 1% 1¢ 1¢ $2.6M

The same question on Kalshi

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

64%Hike 25bps
  • Hike 25bps64%▼ 16
  • Fed maintains rate34%▲ 14
  • Cut 25bps1%
  • Cut >25bps<1%
1 more
  • Hike >25bps<1%▼ 1

Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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