Fed Decision in January?

Polymarket Closes Jan 27, 2027 · $1.2M traded · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

75%No change
  • No change75%▼ 4
  • 25 bps increase19%▼ 1
  • 25 bps decrease3%▲ 2
  • 50+ bps decrease1%
  • 50+ bps increase1%

How the odds have moved

No change: 65% on Oct 3, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Traded
No change 75% ▼ 4 74¢ 75¢ $320.8K
25 bps increase 19% ▼ 1 18¢ 19¢ $411.8K
25 bps decrease 3% ▲ 2 3¢ 3¢ $184.6K
50+ bps decrease 1% 1¢ 1¢ $202.5K
50+ bps increase 1% 1¢ 1¢ $126.1K

The same question on Kalshi

Fed decision in Jan 2027?

74%Fed maintains rate
  • Fed maintains rate74%▼ 5
  • Hike 25bps22%▲ 4
  • Cut 25bps3%▲ 2
  • Hike >25bps1%
1 more
  • Cut >25bps<1%
Kalshi 74%Closes Jan 27, 2027 · 365.3K contracts

Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

More on this question

All central banks & rates ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance