Predictions

What traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect for the Fed, inflation, jobs and growth, the stock market, companies, crypto, commodities and currencies: the odds of each outcome and the ranges they imply, next to the instruments they are about.

No open markets here right now.

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ means traders give it an 84% chance. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a price ladder ("above $80,000, above $82,000 ..."), the odds at each level give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile. Markets with no quote within ten cents and little trading are left out.

Where both venues ask the same question, both are shown. Markets that settle on different prices (Bitcoin on one exchange at noon, on an index at 5pm) are never averaged.

Each question opens its own page: every outcome, how the odds have moved, and what it settled on.

The venues

Kalshi · regulated U.S. exchange; prices in contracts
Polymarket · prices in dollars traded

Read every few minutes. Each card links to its market.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance