Predictions

What traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect for the Fed, inflation, jobs and growth, the stock market, companies, crypto, commodities and currencies: the odds of each outcome and the ranges they imply, next to the instruments they are about.

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

94%chance▲ 4

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

85%S&P 500

S&P 50085%▲ 2
Gold8%▲ 4
Bitcoin7%▼ 3

^GSPC+1.58%VOO+1.62%SPY+1.65%IVV+1.62%

S&P close price end of 2026?

7,804median

3,8009,200

Median 7,804Middle half 7,438 – 7,993Above today's price 60%

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

8,024high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,024 and as low as 7,284.

Reaches 8,00055%
Reaches 8,20013%
Reaches 8,6004%
Reaches 9,0004%

Falls to 7,40063%
Falls to 7,20041%
Falls to 7,00034%
Falls to 6,2005%

Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

How high will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)

39%8,000 or above

Reaches 8,00039%
Reaches 8,20015%
Reaches 8,4005%
Reaches 8,6004%

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

28,850median

18,50033,500

Median 28,850Middle half 26,600 – 30,544Above today's price 56%

^NDX+0.91%NQ=F−0.48%QQQ+0.97%

Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by ___?

19%December 31, 2026

December 31, 202619%▲ 9

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?

19%31,400 or above

Reaches 31,40019%
Reaches 31,60012%
Reaches 31,80010%
Reaches 32,00010%

Already reached: 30,800 or above, 31,000 or above, 31,200 or above

^NDX+0.91%NQ=F−0.48%QQQ+0.97%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

7,540median

5,5008,500

Median 7,540Middle half 6,941 – 8,042Above today's price 43%

^GSPC+1.58%VOO+1.62%SPY+1.65%ES=F+0.15%

How low will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)

7%6,300 or below

Falls to 6,3007%
Falls to 6,2004%
Falls to 6,1004%
Falls to 6,0004%

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 by...?

50%March 31, 2027

December 31, 20264%
March 31, 202750%

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

44%Cheniere Energy (LNG)

Cheniere Energy (LNG)44%▲ 1
Astera Labs (ALAB)42%▼ 6
Rocket Companies (RKT)41%▼ 1
SoFi Technologies (SOFI)36%▼ 4

7 more

Credo Technology (CRDO)28%▲ 2
MongoDB (MDB)23%▼ 2
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)14%▼ 28
HEICO (HEI)13%▼ 2
Affirm Holdings (AFRM)9%▼ 3
Medline (MDLN)7%▼ 8
Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)2%

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

How low will the Nasdaq-100 get in 2026?

20%22,800 or below

Falls to 22,80020%
Falls to 22,60011%
Falls to 22,40011%
Falls to 22,20011%

^NDX+0.91%NQ=F−0.48%QQQ+0.97%

S&P 2027 year end price range

7,966median

4,40010,800

Median 7,966Middle half 7,145 – 9,114Above today's price 63%

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

S&P price range on Nov 6, 2026 at 4pm EST?

7,707median

7,3258,075

Median 7,707Middle half 7,632 – 7,772Above today's price 58%

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

Nasdaq-100 price range on Nov 6, 2026 at 4pm EST?

28,438median

27,90030,900

Median 28,438Middle half 28,028 – 28,947Above today's price 50%

^NDX+0.91%NQ=F−0.48%QQQ+0.97%

S&P 500 Daily Up/Down (Nov 5, 2026)

58%chance

^GSPC+1.58%VOO+1.62%SPY+1.65%ES=F+0.15%

NASDAQ-100 Daily Up/Down (Nov 5, 2026)

27%chance

^NDX+0.91%NQ=F−0.48%QQQ+0.97%

Nasdaq-100 price range on Nov 5, 2026 at 4pm EST?

28,222median

26,60029,600

Median 28,222Middle half 27,926 – 28,462Above today's price 27%

^NDX+0.91%QQQ+0.97%NQ=F−0.48%

S&P price range on Nov 5, 2026 at 4pm EST?

7,700median

7,1757,925

Median 7,700Middle half 7,650 – 7,733Above today's price 57%

^GSPC+1.58%ES=F+0.15%IVV+1.62%SPY+1.65%

Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?

82%chance▼ 1

What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of November 2 2026?

67%↓ $149

Reaches $15514%
Reaches $15614%
Reaches $15714%
Reaches $15814%

Falls to $15199%
Falls to $15068%
Falls to $14967%
Falls to $14867%

Already reached: ↑ $158, ↑ $157, ↑ $156, ↑ $155, ↑ $154, ↑ $153

EWY−1.90%

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?

$783.18high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $783.18 and as low as $751.16.

Reaches $77092%
Reaches $78057%
Reaches $79035%
Reaches $80014%

Falls to $76073%
Falls to $75047%
Falls to $74028%
Falls to $73019%

Already reached: ↓ $760, ↑ $760

SPY+1.65%VOO+1.62%IVV+1.62%^GSPC+1.58%

What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?

18%↓ 10,000

Reaches 14,0005%
Reaches 16,0003%
Reaches 18,0003%

Falls to 10,00018%
Falls to 8,0005%
Falls to 6,0004%
Falls to 4,0004%

Already reached: ↑ 12,000

KOSPI all-time high before 2028?

28%chance

^KS11−5.28%EWY−1.90%

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of November 2 2026?

$772.47high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $772.47 and as low as $761.87.

Reaches $77070%
Reaches $77530%
Reaches $78012%
Reaches $78512%

Falls to $76571%
Falls to $76038%
Falls to $75517%
Falls to $7507%

Already reached: ↑ $765, ↑ $760, ↓ $755, ↑ $760, ↑ $755

SPY+1.65%^GSPC+1.58%IVV+1.62%VOO+1.62%

Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026

66,466median

50,00090,000

Median 66,466Middle half 58,481 – 72,693Above today's price 68%

^N225−1.79%EWJ+1.37%

S&P price at year-end? (On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST)

7,805median

6,8008,600

Median 7,805Middle half 7,391 – 7,942

Fear & Greed Index on Nov 6, 2026?

55%Fear

Fear55%▼ 1
Extreme Fear31%▼ 9
Neutral11%▲ 5
Greed1%▲ 1

1 more

Extreme Greed<1%

NASDAQ-100 price at year-end? (On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST)

28,700median

25,00043,000

Median 28,700Middle half 27,065 – 30,760

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ means traders give it an 84% chance. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a price ladder ("above $80,000, above $82,000 ..."), the odds at each level give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile. Markets with no quote within ten cents and little trading are left out.

Where both venues ask the same question, both are shown. Markets that settle on different prices (Bitcoin on one exchange at noon, on an index at 5pm) are never averaged.

Each question opens its own page: every outcome, how the odds have moved, and what it settled on.

The venues

Kalshi · regulated U.S. exchange; prices in contracts
Polymarket · prices in dollars traded

Read every few minutes; last 2 min ago. Each card links to its market.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance