Predictions

What traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect for the Fed, inflation, jobs and growth, the stock market, companies, crypto, commodities and currencies: the odds of each outcome and the ranges they imply, next to the instruments they are about.

CPI in October (In Oct 2026)

0.22%median

-0.2%1.1%

Median 0.22%Middle half 0.16% – 0.28%

^IRX−0.94%^TNX−1.16%

CPI YoY in November (In Nov 2026)

3.74%median

2.9%5.1%

Median 3.74%Middle half 3.63% – 3.85%

TIP+0.15%^TNX−1.16%

CPI YoY in December (In Dec 2026)

3.86%median

2.9%5.1%

Median 3.86%Middle half 3.57% – 4.21%

^IRX−0.94%^TNX−1.16%

October Inflation US - Annual

3.71%median

3.15%4.35%

Median 3.71%Middle half 3.68% – 3.73%

^IRX−0.94%^TNX−1.16%

How many jobs added in October?

67Kmedian

-50K125K

Median 67KMiddle half 35K – 103K

^IRX−0.94%^TNX−1.16%

CPI in November (In Nov 2026)

-0.01%median

-0.2%0.6%

Median -0.01%

^IRX−0.94%^TNX−1.16%

CPI in December (In Dec 2026)

0.23%median

-0.2%1%

Median 0.23%Middle half 0.12% – 0.29%

^IRX−0.94%^TNX−1.16%

Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?

82Kmedian

-50K150K

Median 82K

^IRX−0.94%^TNX−1.16%

Unemployment in October (In Oct 2026)

4.14%median

3.6%5.1%

Median 4.14%Middle half 4.07% – 4.2%

^IRX−0.94%^TNX−1.16%

How high will inflation get in 2026?

11%Above 4.5%

4%12%

^TNX−1.16%TIP+0.15%

Core CPI in October (In Oct 2026)

0.18%median

-0.1%1.1%

Median 0.18%Middle half 0.11% – 0.26%

^TNX−1.16%TIP+0.15%

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.62%median

2.51%7.49%

Median 5.62%Middle half 5.32% – 5.82%

Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026

84,176median

79,00093,000

Median 84,176Middle half 83,471 – 84,851

Washington professional, scientific, and technical services employment at end of 2026

258,942median

230,000285,000

Median 258,942Middle half 254,022 – 262,708

Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)

2.81%median

1.9%3.6%

Median 2.81%Middle half 2.66% – 2.9%

^TNX−1.16%TIP+0.15%

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.85%median

1.3%3.2%

Median 2.85%Middle half 2.74% – 3.07%

Average Wall Street bonus in 2026

$276,689median

$175,000$375,000

Median $276,689Middle half $257,955 – $293,581

Visitors to Florida in 2026

141.6median

134150

Median 141.6Middle half 140.3 – 143.0

Will New York securities-industry employment rise YoY? (2026)

95%chance▲ 8

Port of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026

8.86median

8.309.30

Median 8.86Middle half 8.79 – 8.96

Core CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)

2.85%median

2%3.6%

Median 2.85%Middle half 2.71% – 3%

^TNX−1.16%TIP+0.15%

Pennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026

556,136median

540,000575,000

Median 556,136Middle half 553,047 – 558,409

Core PCE YoY - October 2026

3.17%median

2.75%3.45%

Median 3.17%Middle half 3.07% – 3.25%

^TNX−1.16%TIP+0.15%

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.85%median

0.01%5.24%

Median 4.85%Middle half 4.65% – 5.04%

JOLTS Job Openings: October 2026

7.47Mmedian

7.10M7.90M

Median 7.47MMiddle half 7.27M – 7.61M

^IRX−0.94%

How high will inflation get this year? (In 2026)

19%At least 4.5%

Reaches 4.5%19%
Reaches 5%12%
Reaches 5.5%4%
Reaches 6%4%

^TNX−1.16%TIP+0.15%

Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026

456,856median

445,000465,000

Median 456,856Middle half 454,938 – 458,679

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.22%median

1.5%4.4%

Median 2.22%Middle half 2.1% – 2.33%

October Inflation China - Annual

0.77%median

0.5%1.4%

Median 0.77%Middle half 0.73% – 0.93%

Core CPI YoY - October 2026

2.6%median

2.15%3.15%

Median 2.6%Middle half 2.57% – 2.63%

^TNX−1.16%TIP+0.15%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ means traders give it an 84% chance. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a price ladder ("above $80,000, above $82,000 ..."), the odds at each level give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile. Markets with no quote within ten cents and little trading are left out.

Where both venues ask the same question, both are shown. Markets that settle on different prices (Bitcoin on one exchange at noon, on an index at 5pm) are never averaged.

Each question opens its own page: every outcome, how the odds have moved, and what it settled on.

The venues

Kalshi · regulated U.S. exchange; prices in contracts
Polymarket · prices in dollars traded

Read every few minutes; last 3 min ago. Each card links to its market.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance