Fed decision in Mar 2027?

Kalshi Closes Mar 17, 2027 · 71.7K contracts · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

50%Fed maintains rate
  • Fed maintains rate50%▲ 3
  • Hike 25bps47%
  • Cut 25bps5%▼ 1
  • Cut >25bps1%
  • Hike >25bps1%

How the odds have moved

Fed maintains rate: 44% on Oct 13, 50% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
Fed maintains rate 50% ▲ 3 50¢ 53¢ 21.4K
Hike 25bps 47% 47¢ 50¢ 26.1K
Cut 25bps 5% ▼ 1 4¢ 6¢ 8.7K
Cut >25bps 1% 1¢ 2¢ 7.4K
Hike >25bps 1% 1¢ 2¢ 8.1K

The same question on Polymarket

Fed Decision in March?

47%No change
  • No change47%
  • 25 bps increase47%
  • 25 bps decrease4%
  • 50+ bps increase2%
1 more
  • 50+ bps decrease1%

Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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