October Unemployment Rate
4.2%median
3.75%4.65%
Median 4.2%Middle half 4.13% – 4.27%
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Unemployment in October (In Oct 2026)
The odds
4.14%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.14%Middle half 4.08% – 4.2%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.15% on Sep 30, 4.14% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.7% | 100% | 99¢ | 14.1K | ||
| Above 3.8% | 100% | 99¢ | 11.1K | ||
| Above 3.9% | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | 13.1K | |
| Above 4.0% | 94% | 93¢ | 94¢ | 53.1K | |
| Above 4.1% | 70% | ▲ 2 | 69¢ | 70¢ | 70.9K |
| Above 4.2% | 24% | ▼ 2 | 23¢ | 25¢ | 23.4K |
| Above 4.3% | 4% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 4¢ | 23.9K |
| Above 4.4% | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 18.9K | |
| Above 4.5% | 1% | 1¢ | 30.5K | ||
| Above 4.6% | 1% | 1¢ | 5.6K | ||
| Above 4.7% | 1% | 1¢ | 9.0K | ||
| Above 4.8% | 1% | 1¢ | 2.2K | ||
| Above 4.9% | 1% | 1¢ | 2.2K | ||
| Above 5.0% | 1% | 1¢ | 2.4K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance