Fed Decision in March?

Polymarket Closes Mar 17, 2027 · $111.9K traded · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

55%No change
  • No change55%▲ 7
  • 25 bps increase34%▼ 13
  • 25 bps decrease5%
  • 50+ bps increase1%
  • 50+ bps decrease1%

How the odds have moved

No change: 29% on Oct 28, 55% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Traded
No change 55% ▲ 7 54¢ 55¢ $25.9K
25 bps increase 34% ▼ 13 33¢ 34¢ $63.0K
25 bps decrease 5% 5¢ 5¢ $8.2K
50+ bps increase 1% 1¢ 2¢ $7.6K
50+ bps decrease 1% 1¢ 1¢ $7.3K

The same question on Kalshi

Fed decision in Mar 2027?

52%Fed maintains rate
  • Fed maintains rate52%▲ 2
  • Hike 25bps39%▼ 10
  • Cut 25bps4%▼ 2
  • Hike >25bps2%
1 more
  • Cut >25bps1%▼ 1
Kalshi 52%Closes Mar 17, 2027 · 100.1K contracts

Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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