The U.S. economy

Inflation, jobs, wages, interest rates and growth, from the agencies that publish them, beside the economic news in the 4SEARCH.business index.

Inflation (CPI)Sep 2026
3.7%
+0.34 pts vs prior month

Consumer prices, all items, change from a year earlier

Next release: traders' median 3.7% · Polymarket

Core inflationSep 2026
2.6%
+0.11 pts vs prior month

CPI excluding food and energy, change from a year earlier

Unemployment rateSep 2026
4.2%
+0.10 pts vs prior month

Share of the labor force without a job, seasonally adjusted

Next release: traders' median 4.15% · Kalshi

Payrolls addedSep 2026
+29K
−104K vs prior month

Monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment, thousands

Next release: traders' median +67K · Kalshi

Wage growthSep 2026
3.0%
−0.09 pts vs prior month

Average hourly earnings of private employees, change from a year earlier

Producer prices (PPI)Sep 2026
6.3%
+0.73 pts vs prior month

Final-demand producer prices, change from a year earlier

Labor force participationSep 2026
61.8%
+0.20 pts vs prior month

Share of the population working or looking for work

Fed funds rate2026-11-03
3.88%
Target 3.75–4.00%

Effective overnight rate banks charge each other; set by the Federal Reserve's target range.

Next meeting, Dec 9: traders give a hike 78% · Fed odds

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed funds: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. GDP, mortgage rates, sentiment and retail sales from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), when available.

What the markets expect from the Fed

All rate odds ›

Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike

  1. Dec 921%78%Hike 78%4.07%
  2. Jan 2773%25%Hold 73%4.13%
  3. Mar 1742%53%Hike 53%4.25%
  4. Apr 2814%68%17%Hold 68%4.25%
  5. Jun 964%31%Hold 64%4.31%
  6. Jul 2892%Hold 92%4.31%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Treasury yield curve

Rates & bonds ›

Daily par yield curve rates from the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Market gauges

Name Price Change % Chg
10Y YieldOdds 4.911 +0.017 +0.35%
3M T-Bill 4.020 −0.005 −0.12%
Dollar IndexOdds 101.60 +0.03 +0.03%
Crude OilOdds 89.76 +1.64 +1.86%
GoldOdds 4,134.30 +61.30 +1.50%

Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance