Fed decision in Oct 2027?
90%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate90%▲ 10
- Cut 25bps6%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps4%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
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Fed decision in Sep 2027?
The odds
80%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate80%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps8%▼ 2
- Cut 25bps7%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps5%
- Hike >25bps3%
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 70% on Oct 3, 80% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 80% | ▲ 1 | 80¢ | 83¢ | 32.8K |
| Hike 25bps | 8% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ | 10¢ | 1.6K |
| Cut 25bps | 7% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 9¢ | 3.2K |
| Cut >25bps | 5% | 1¢ | 10¢ | 15.8K | |
| Hike >25bps | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | 1.5K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed decision in Jul 2027?
92%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate92%▲ 16
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps3%▼ 17
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
87%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate87%▲ 22
- Cut 25bps10%▼ 7
- Hike 25bps3%▼ 6
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
67%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate67%▲ 10
- Hike 25bps32%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
- Cut >25bps1%▲ 1
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Jan 2028?
60%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate60%
- Hike 25bps24%▲ 9
- Cut 25bps10%
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 3
1 more
- Cut >25bps3%
Fed Decision in April?
62%No change
- No change62%▲ 6
- 25 bps increase16%▼ 10
- 25 bps decrease9%▼ 3
- 50+ bps decrease5%▲ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps increase2%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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