Companies removed from the S&P 500 in Q4? (Q4 2026)

Kalshi Closes Dec 31 · 2.7K contracts · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

96%Kenvue

Kenvue96%
AES31%
Paramount Skydance30%
Norwegian Cruise Line26%
Alexandria Real Estate11%
Brown-Forman9%
Hormel Foods9%
Skyworks Solutions9%
Dow9%
LyondellBasell Industries9%
Solventum9%
Hasbro9%

2 more

Deckers Outdoor8%
A. O. Smith8%

How the odds have moved

Kenvue: 81% on Oct 2, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Contracts
Kenvue	96%	93¢	99¢	601
AES	31%	26¢	35¢	414
Paramount Skydance	30%	25¢	34¢	735
Norwegian Cruise Line	26%	21¢	30¢	600
Alexandria Real Estate	11%	6¢	15¢	200
Brown-Forman	9%	4¢	13¢
Hormel Foods	9%	4¢	13¢
Skyworks Solutions	9%	4¢	13¢
Dow	9%	4¢	13¢
LyondellBasell Industries	9%	4¢	13¢
Solventum	9%	4¢	13¢
Hasbro	9%	4¢	13¢
Deckers Outdoor	8%	4¢	12¢	106
A. O. Smith	8%	3¢	12¢

Related markets

All indexes ›

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

90%chance▼ 4

^GSPC−4.04%IVV−4.02%ES=F−4.11%VOO−4.08%

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

86%S&P 500

S&P 50086%▲ 1
Gold8%▲ 5
Bitcoin6%▼ 6

^GSPC−4.04%VOO−4.08%SPY−4.05%IVV−4.02%

S&P close price end of 2026?

7,616median

3,8009,200

Median 7,616Middle half 7,205 – 7,890Above today's price 67%

^GSPC−4.04%ES=F−4.11%IVV−4.02%SPY−4.05%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

38%↓ $7,200

Traders see as low as 7,270.

Reaches 8,00028%
Reaches 8,20014%
Reaches 8,6004%
Reaches 9,0004%

Falls to 7,20038%
Falls to 7,00030%
Falls to 6,2007%
Falls to 6,0005%

Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400

^GSPC−4.04%ES=F−4.11%IVV−4.02%SPY−4.05%

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in November 2026?

$755.60high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $755.60 and as low as $709.35.

Reaches $74069%
Reaches $75064%
Reaches $76039%
Reaches $77026%

Falls to $73083%
Falls to $72065%
Falls to $71051%
Falls to $70036%

Already reached: ↓ $760, ↓ $750, ↓ $740, ↑ $760, ↓ $760

SPY−4.05%^GSPC−4.04%IVV−4.02%VOO−4.08%

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

28,521median

18,50033,500

Median 28,521Middle half 25,858 – 30,129Above today's price 68%

^NDX−5.81%NQ=F−5.61%QQQ−5.83%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onS&P Global

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded2.7K contracts

Prices read3 min ago

Followed sinceOct 13, 2026

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

What it is about

The AES CorporationAES · about the company14.88−0.13%
Deckers Outdoor CorporationDECK · about the company86.95−2.42%
Dow Inc.DOW · about the company32.20−1.53%
Hormel Foods CorporationHRL · about the company22.57−0.83%
KVUEKVUE · about the company
LYBLYB · about the company
NCLHNCLH · about the company
SOLVSOLV · about the company

Reading the odds

Each price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ that pays $1 if the outcome happens means traders give it an 84% chance. The number shown is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

Every prediction market

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance