Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
66%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate66%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps34%▲ 5
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Install
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
The odds
67%No Change
- No Change67%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase33%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
No Change: 50% on Oct 1, 67% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 67% | ▼ 1 | 66¢ | 68¢ | $80.1K |
| 25 bps increase | 33% | ▲ 5 | 32¢ | 35¢ | $79.3K |
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $28.2K | |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | 0¢ | $13.6K | ||
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $10.4K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Canada Decision in January?
51%No Change
- No Change51%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase38%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase4%
- 50+ bps decrease4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease4%
Bank of Canada Decision in March?
51%No Change
- No Change51%▲ 4
- 25 bps increase32%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease12%
- 50+ bps decrease5%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
Fed Decision in December?
65%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase65%▼ 13
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
51%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting51%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
66%chance▼ 12
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