Bank of Canada Decision in December?
66%No Change
- No Change66%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase33%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
The odds
66%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate66%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps35%▲ 3
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
- Hike >25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Maintains rate: 49% on Sep 30, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintains rate | 66% | ▼ 1 | 66¢ | 67¢ | 51.5K |
| Hike 25bps | 35% | ▲ 3 | 35¢ | 36¢ | 39.2K |
| Cut >25bps | <1% | 1¢ | 2.7K | ||
| Cut 25bps | <1% | 1¢ | 1.9K | ||
| Hike >25bps | <1% | 1¢ | 1.3K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Canada Decision in January?
51%No Change
- No Change51%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase37%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase5%
- 50+ bps decrease4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease4%
Bank of Canada Decision in March?
55%No Change
- No Change55%▲ 12
- 25 bps increase30%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease11%
- 50+ bps decrease4%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
Fed Decision in December?
65%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase65%▼ 12
- No change34%▲ 13
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
52%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting52%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting49%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%▼ 1
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
66%chance▼ 12
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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