Bank of Canada Decision in January?
51%No Change
- No Change51%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase36%
- 50+ bps increase5%
- 50+ bps decrease5%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease4%
Install
Bank of Canada Decision in March?
The odds
55%No Change
- No Change55%▲ 12
- 25 bps increase30%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease11%
- 50+ bps decrease4%
- 50+ bps increase1%
How the odds have moved
No Change: 42% on Oct 30, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 55% | ▲ 12 | 48¢ | 69¢ | $6.3K |
| 25 bps increase | 30% | ▼ 3 | 30¢ | 33¢ | $987 |
| 25 bps decrease | 11% | 1¢ | 22¢ | $535 | |
| 50+ bps decrease | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $475 | |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $759 |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
66%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate66%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps35%▲ 3
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Fed Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▼ 12
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
52%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting52%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting49%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%▼ 1
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
67%chance▼ 11
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