European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
81%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps81%▲ 1
- Maintain current rate17%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut 1-25bps1%
Install
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
The odds
82%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase82%▲ 1
- No change15%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase: 82% on Oct 1, 82% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 82% | ▲ 1 | 81¢ | 82¢ | $30.0K |
| No change | 15% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $18.5K |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $4.9K | |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4.9K | |
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4.5K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›ECB Interest Rates: February 2027
82%No Change
- No Change82%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase14%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease4%
- 50+ bps increase2%▼ 1
1 more
- 25 bps decrease2%▼ 1
ECB Interest Rates: March 2027
53%No Change
- No Change53%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase41%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase4%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
98%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)98%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
78%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase78%▲ 14
- No change21%▼ 12
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
48%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting48%▼ 5
- April 2027 Meeting47%▼ 3
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting9%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.24 – 0.29
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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