ECB Interest Rates: March 2027
53%No Change
- No Change53%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase39%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase5%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
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ECB Interest Rates: February 2027
The odds
80%No Change
- No Change80%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase14%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease3%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
No Change: 70% on Oct 30, 80% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 80% | ▲ 2 | 80¢ | 82¢ | $2.7K |
| 25 bps increase | 14% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $648 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $1.5K |
| 50+ bps increase | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $1.3K |
| 25 bps decrease | 3% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $1.9K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
82%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps82%▼ 5
- Maintain current rate16%▲ 3
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%▼ 1
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
64%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase64%▼ 13
- No change34%▲ 13
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
64%chance▼ 14
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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