ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
82%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase82%▼ 7
- No change14%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
80%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps80%▼ 5
- Maintain current rate18%▲ 6
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Hike 1-25bps: 72% on Oct 13, 80% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 80% | ▼ 5 | 79¢ | 83¢ | 7.3K |
| Maintain current rate | 18% | ▲ 6 | 15¢ | 22¢ | 3.3K |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 235 | ||
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 236 | ||
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 546 |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›ECB Interest Rates: February 2027
81%No Change
- No Change81%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase14%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 1
1 more
- 25 bps decrease3%▼ 1
ECB Interest Rates: March 2027
53%No Change
- No Change53%
- 25 bps increase39%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase5%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in December?
66%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase66%▼ 11
- No change31%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
66%chance▼ 12
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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