Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4? (Q4 2026)

Kalshi Closes Dec 31 · 5.9K contracts · prices read 35 min ago

The odds

98%Twilio
  • Twilio98%
  • Cheniere Energy32%
  • Astera Labs26%▲ 1
  • Okta22%
  • Credo Technology16%▲ 1
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals15%
  • MongoDB12%
  • SoFi12%▼ 3
  • Affirm Holdings11%
  • HEICO9%▲ 1
  • Rocket Companies9%▼ 1
  • Southern Copper9%▼ 1
23 more
  • LPL Financial9%
  • ATI9%
  • Tradeweb Markets9%
  • Venture Global9%
  • TPG9%
  • Snowflake9%
  • Atlassian9%
  • Natera9%
  • Talen Energy8%
  • Zoom7%▲ 1
  • Curtiss-Wright7%
  • Toast7%
  • Cloudflare7%
  • Roblox6%
  • BWX Technologies6%
  • SpaceX6%
  • Medline4%
  • CoreWeave4%
  • Circle Internet Group3%
  • Guidewire Software3%
  • Duolingo3%
  • Strategy (MicroStrategy)2%
  • Cerebras2%

How the odds have moved

Twilio: 98% on Oct 7, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
Twilio 98% 96¢ 99¢ 400
Cheniere Energy 32% 27¢ 36¢ 359
Astera Labs 26% ▲ 1 25¢ 27¢ 421
Okta 22% 80¢ 99¢ 450
Credo Technology 16% ▲ 1 12¢ 19¢ 360
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals 15% 11¢ 19¢ 405
MongoDB 12% 7¢ 16¢ 281
SoFi 12% ▼ 3 8¢ 15¢ 334
Affirm Holdings 11% 7¢ 14¢ 247
HEICO 9% ▲ 1 5¢ 13¢ 240
Rocket Companies 9% ▼ 1 5¢ 13¢
Southern Copper 9% ▼ 1 5¢ 13¢
LPL Financial 9% 4¢ 13¢
ATI 9% 4¢ 13¢ 182
Tradeweb Markets 9% 4¢ 13¢
Venture Global 9% 4¢ 13¢
TPG 9% 4¢ 13¢
Snowflake 9% 4¢ 13¢
Atlassian 9% 4¢ 13¢
Natera 9% 4¢ 13¢
Talen Energy 8% 4¢ 12¢
Zoom 7% ▲ 1 4¢ 10¢ 110
Curtiss-Wright 7% 4¢ 10¢ 3.00
Toast 7% 4¢ 10¢ 1.00
Cloudflare 7% 4¢ 10¢ 531
Roblox 6% 2¢ 10¢ 201
BWX Technologies 6% 1¢ 10¢ 325
SpaceX 6% 2¢ 9¢ 320
Medline 4% 8¢ 138
CoreWeave 4% 8¢
Circle Internet Group 3% 6¢ 200
Guidewire Software 3% 6¢ 200
Duolingo 3% 6¢ 200
Strategy (MicroStrategy) 2% 4¢ 17.00
Cerebras 2% 4¢

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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