How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
4.78%median
4.65%4.85%
Median 4.78%Above today's price 14%
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How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
The odds
28%5.06% or above
10Y Yield now 4.837 −1.16% 5.04%5.35%
Above today's price —
How the odds have moved
5.06% or above: 50% on Nov 2, 28% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.06% or above | 28% | ▼ 12 | 23¢ | 33¢ | 23.00 |
| 5.07% or above | 26% | ▼ 12 | 20¢ | 30¢ | |
| 5.08% or above | 26% | ▼ 10 | 20¢ | 30¢ | 2.00 |
| 5.09% or above | 26% | ▼ 6 | 24¢ | 30¢ | 42.00 |
| 5.1% or above | 20% | ▼ 11 | 15¢ | 25¢ | 2.00 |
| 5.11% or above | 20% | ▼ 9 | 15¢ | 25¢ | 2.00 |
| 5.12% or above | 20% | ▼ 9 | 15¢ | 25¢ | 2.00 |
| 5.13% or above | 20% | ▼ 9 | 15¢ | 25¢ | 80.00 |
| 5.14% or above | 15% | ▼ 7 | 10¢ | 20¢ | |
| 5.15% or above | 15% | ▼ 6 | 10¢ | 20¢ | |
| 5.16% or above | 15% | ▼ 4 | 10¢ | 20¢ | 3.00 |
| 5.17% or above | 15% | ▼ 5 | 11¢ | 19¢ | 84.00 |
| 5.18% or above | 11% | ▼ 6 | 6¢ | 16¢ | 4.00 |
| 5.19% or above | 9% | ▼ 6 | 4¢ | 14¢ | 6.00 |
| 5.2% or above | 9% | ▼ 5 | 3¢ | 13¢ | |
| 5.21% or above | 9% | ▼ 4 | 6¢ | 13¢ | |
| 5.22% or above | 8% | ▼ 4 | 3¢ | 13¢ | 10.00 |
| 5.23% or above | 8% | ▼ 3 | 3¢ | 13¢ | |
| 5.24% or above | 8% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 13¢ | |
| 5.25% or above | 8% | ▼ 3 | 3¢ | 12¢ | 78.00 |
| 5.26% or above | 6% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 11¢ | |
| 5.27% or above | 6% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 10¢ | |
| 5.28% or above | 6% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 10¢ | |
| 5.29% or above | 6% | ▼ 4 | 4¢ | 9¢ | 40.00 |
| 5.3% or above | 4% | ▼ 4 | 8¢ | ||
| 5.31% or above | 4% | ▼ 4 | 8¢ | ||
| 5.32% or above | 4% | ▼ 5 | 7¢ | ||
| 5.33% or above | 4% | ▼ 7 | 7¢ | 75.00 | |
| 5.34% or above | 3% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ | ||
| 5.35% or above | 3% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?
44%Below 4.57%
4.53%4.85%
Above today's price —
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in November?
31%5.06%
5.03%5.43%
Above today's price —
10Y US Treasury yield on Nov 6, 2026?
4.85%median
4.63%5.15%
Median 4.85%Middle half 4.81% – 4.88%Above today's price 61%
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end? (On Dec 31, 2026)
4.89%median
4.49%6.24%
Median 4.89%Above today's price 55%
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
17%Above .7%
0.6%1.1%
Above today's price —
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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