How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Polymarket Closes Dec 30 · $468.1K traded · prices read 49 min ago

The odds

29%Below 4.00%
5Y Yield now 4.608 −1.73%
3.9%4.6%

How the odds have moved

Below 4.00%: 2% on Oct 1, 29% now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Traded
Below 4.00% 29% ▲ 1 3¢ 7¢ $13.1K
Below 4.10% 29% ▲ 7 10¢ 14¢ $25.1K
Below 4.20% 29% ▲ 3 12¢ 14¢ $41.9K
Below 4.25% 29% 12¢ 14¢ $31.9K
Below 4.30% 29% ▲ 1 16¢ 23¢ $26.7K
Below 4.35% 29% ▲ 2 17¢ 24¢ $52.5K
Below 4.40% 29% ▼ 4 27¢ 30¢ $36.7K
Below 4.45% 29% ▲ 6 40¢ 45¢ $55.7K
Below 4.50% 29% ▲ 15 50¢ 68¢ $37.6K
Below 4.55% 29% ▲ 26 75¢ 81¢ $17.0K
✓ Below 4.60% >99% ▲ 40 100¢ 100¢ $14.9K
✓ Below 4.65% >99% ▲ 18 100¢ 100¢ $84.7K
✓ Below 4.70% >99% ▲ 14 100¢ 100¢ $30.4K

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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