Swiss National Bank Decision in March?
47%No Change
- No Change47%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase37%▼ 8
- 50+ bps decrease5%
- 25 bps decrease2%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%▼ 2
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Swiss National Bank Decision in June?
The odds
35%No Change
- No Change35%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase30%
- 25 bps decrease22%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase11%▲ 2
- 50+ bps decrease4%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase: 46% on Oct 30, 30% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 35% | ▲ 1 | 35¢ | 36¢ | $2.9K |
| 25 bps increase | 30% | 30¢ | 31¢ | $10.3K | |
| 25 bps decrease | 22% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 33¢ | $661 |
| 50+ bps increase | 11% | ▲ 2 | 1¢ | 21¢ | $439 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $854 |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Swiss National Bank decision in December?
88%No Change
- No Change88%
- 25 bps increase11%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Fed Decision in December?
65%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase65%▼ 12
- No change34%▲ 13
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
52%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting52%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting49%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%▼ 1
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
66%chance▼ 12
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