Fed Decision in December?
65%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase65%▼ 13
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Install
Next ECB President?
The odds
40%Pablo Hernández de Cos
- Pablo Hernández de Cos40%▲ 1
- Klaas Knot36%▲ 2
- Other28%
- François Villeroy de Galhau8%▲ 1
- Fabio Panetta6%
- Nadia Calviño4%
- Joachim Nagel4%
- Olli Rehn2%
How the odds have moved
Pablo Hernández de Cos: 35% on Oct 30, 40% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Hernández de Cos | 40% | ▲ 1 | 40¢ | 45¢ | $1.1K |
| Klaas Knot | 36% | ▲ 2 | 36¢ | 49¢ | $1.2K |
| Other | 28% | 0¢ | 100¢ | ||
| François Villeroy de Galhau | 8% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 20¢ | $558 |
| Fabio Panetta | 6% | 3¢ | 17¢ | $451 | |
| Nadia Calviño | 4% | 1¢ | 14¢ | $452 | |
| Joachim Nagel | 4% | 1¢ | 12¢ | $618 | |
| Olli Rehn | 2% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $325 |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
51%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting51%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
66%chance▼ 12
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.24 – 0.29
Fed Decision in January?
75%No change
- No change75%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase18%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease3%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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