Recession in 2027?
26%chance▲ 5
Install
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
The odds
62%Dem sweep; No recession
- Dem sweep; No recession62%▼ 3
- Dem sweep; Recession24%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Dem sweep; No recession: 46% on Nov 2, 62% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dem sweep; No recession | 62% | ▼ 3 | 57¢ | 67¢ | $2.0K |
| Dem sweep; Recession | 24% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 44¢ | $2.5K |
| No Dem sweep; Recession | <1% | ▼ 5 | 0¢ | $16.9K | |
| No Dem sweep; No recession | <1% | ▼ 22 | 0¢ | $11.2K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›Recession this year? (In 2026)
4%chance▲ 1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%chance
GDP growth in 2026
2.47%median
0%3%
Median 2.47%Middle half 2.22% – 2.74%
US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.54%median
1%4.5%
Median 2.54%Middle half 1.91% – 3.63%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.19%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.19%Middle half 1.14% – 3.24%
US real GDP growth in 2035?
2.27%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.27%Middle half 0.46% – 3.8%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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