US recession by end of 2026?
5%chance
Install
Recession this year? (In 2026)
The odds
4%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 4% on Oct 13, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›US recession by end of 2027?
32%chance▲ 2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
10%chance▼ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.58%median
1%4.5%
Median 2.58%Middle half 1.86% – 3.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.19%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.19%Middle half 1.14% – 3.23%
US real GDP growth in 2035?
2.28%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.28%Middle half 0.47% – 3.79%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance