Next Fed rate hike?
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%▲ 1
- Before July 202895%▼ 1
- Before 202887%▼ 7
- Before July 202786%▼ 5
1 more
- Before 202766%▼ 14
Install
Next Fed rate cut?
The odds
84%Before July 2028
- Before July 202884%
- Before 202984%▼ 1
- Before 202856%▲ 1
- Before July 202739%▲ 3
- Before 20274%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before July 2028: 63% on Oct 13, 84% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before July 2028 | 84% | 79¢ | 88¢ | 1.3K | |
| Before 2029 | 84% | ▼ 1 | 79¢ | 88¢ | 700 |
| Before 2028 | 56% | ▲ 1 | 53¢ | 59¢ | 1.6K |
| Before July 2027 | 39% | ▲ 3 | 36¢ | 41¢ | 864 |
| Before 2027 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | 810 |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed funds rate at end of 2028
3.75%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.75%Middle half 2.52% – 4.96%
Fed rate cut by...?
52%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting52%▲ 1
- April 2027 Meeting49%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%▼ 1
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Fed funds rate at end of 2029
3.69%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.69%Middle half 1.94% – 5.59%
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.26%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.26%Middle half 3.84% – 4.69%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026
4.14%median
3.25%4.75%
Median 4.14%Middle half 4.06% – 4.22%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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