Number of rate hikes in 2026?
2median
14
Median 2Middle half 1 – 2
Install
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026
The odds
4.14%median
3.25%4.75%
Median 4.14%Middle half 4.06% – 4.22%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.15% on Oct 6, 4.14% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.50% | 100% | 99¢ | 1.5K | ||
| Above 3.75% | 99% | ▲ 4 | 65¢ | 99¢ | 2.3K |
| Above 4.00% | 95% | 69¢ | 99¢ | 1.1K | |
| Above 4.25% | 15% | ▲ 9 | 1¢ | 97¢ | 5.1K |
| Above 4.50% | 1% | ▼ 5 | 1¢ | 24¢ | 16.1K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
5%chance▲ 3
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? (In 2026)
2%chance
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
0.02median
-0.504.50
Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.29
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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