Bank of Japan Decision in December?
88%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase88%▼ 2
- No change10%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
85%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps85%▼ 4
- Maintain current rate12%▲ 2
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 25bps: 67% on Oct 6, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 85% | ▼ 4 | 84¢ | 89¢ | 6.2K |
| Maintain current rate | 12% | ▲ 2 | 11¢ | 13¢ | 1.2K |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | 255 | ||
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | 255 | ||
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | 358 |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of Japan Decision in January?
71%No Change
- No Change71%
- 25 bps increase26%▲ 3
- 50+ bps increase2%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%▼ 1
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
Bank of Japan Decision in March?
48%No Change
- No Change48%
- 25 bps increase40%▼ 2
- 25 bps decrease3%▼ 1
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps increase3%
Fed Decision in December?
65%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase65%▼ 13
- No change32%▲ 10
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
51%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting51%
- April 2027 Meeting50%
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting2%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
66%chance▼ 12
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