Bank of England decision in December?
64%No change
- No change64%▼ 6
- 25 bps increase34%▲ 6
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 25 bps decrease1%▼ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Bank of England rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
61%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate61%▼ 7
- Hike 1-25bps36%▲ 8
- Hike more than 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 30% on Oct 1, 61% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 61% | ▼ 7 | 61¢ | 62¢ | 11.1K |
| Hike 1-25bps | 36% | ▲ 8 | 36¢ | 38¢ | 13.9K |
| Hike more than 25bps | 2% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 3¢ | 3.2K |
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | 3¢ | 2.8K | ||
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 1.1K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Bank of England Decision in February?
78%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase78%▲ 31
- No Change19%▼ 2
- 25 bps decrease2%▼ 3
- 50+ bps decrease2%▲ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Bank of England Decision in March?
59%No Change
- No Change59%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase32%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease5%
- 50+ bps increase4%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease3%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)2%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
65%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase65%▼ 12
- No change32%▲ 11
- 25 bps decrease1%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%
- April 2027 Meeting50%▲ 1
- June 2027 Meeting30%
- March 2027 Meeting13%▲ 1
2 more
- January 2027 Meeting8%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
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