Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%chance
Install
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
The odds
2.91Mmedian
1.50M4.50M
Median 2.91MMiddle half 2.58M – 3.44M
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.00M on Oct 3, 2.91M now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <2.0M | 9% | 8¢ | 10¢ | $35.5K | |
| 2.0 - 2.5M | 11% | 10¢ | 12¢ | $31.2K | |
| 2.5 - 3.0M | 37% | ▲ 9 | 38¢ | 39¢ | $32.5K |
| 3.0 - 3.5M | 21% | ▼ 3 | 21¢ | 23¢ | $34.0K |
| 3.5 - 4.0M | 14% | ▼ 2 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $20.2K |
| 4.0M+ | 8% | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.2K |
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US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.49%median
1%4.5%
Median 2.49%Middle half 1.89% – 3.71%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.19%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.19%Middle half 1.14% – 3.24%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance