Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
12%chance▲ 1
Install
2026 World GDP Growth
The odds
3.14%median
2.85%3.75%
Median 3.14%Middle half 3.07% – 3.22%
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.93% on Sep 30, 3.14% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤2.9% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $22.1K |
| 3.0% | 14% | ▼ 6 | 11¢ | 14¢ | $13.6K |
| 3.1% | 35% | ▼ 15 | 30¢ | 30¢ | $30.3K |
| 3.2% | 34% | ▲ 13 | 27¢ | 32¢ | $8.9K |
| 3.3% | 6% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $5.5K |
| 3.4% | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $5.3K | |
| 3.5% | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $4.5K | |
| 3.6% | 4% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $1.9K | |
| 3.7%+ | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $2.0K |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›US recession by end of 2026?
5%chance▼ 1
Recession in 2027?
22%chance▲ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.42%median
1%4.5%
Median 2.42%Middle half 1.87% – 3.44%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.17%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.17%Middle half 1.1% – 3.23%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4SEARCH.business index. Terms of use. How to use Finance