US recession by end of 2026?
5%chance▼ 1
Install
State of the economy at the end of 2026
The odds
93%Overheating
- Overheating93%
- Soft landing5%
- Stagflation1%
- Slack / disinflation<1%
How the odds have moved
Overheating: 67% on Oct 4, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating | 93% | 92¢ | 94¢ | 84.2K | |
| Soft landing | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | 39.4K | |
| Stagflation | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | 31.2K | |
| Slack / disinflation | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 6.3K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›US recession by end of 2027?
28%chance▼ 4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%chance
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.44%median
1%4.5%
Median 2.44%Middle half 1.92% – 3.43%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.19%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.19%Middle half 1.14% – 3.23%
US real GDP growth in 2035?
2.27%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.27%Middle half 0.46% – 3.8%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4SEARCH.business. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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